Neutral. Waiting for the market to tell us.
We have recently lost a key level of support, and price is now at a key point where we will see first-hand if the bulls are keen to step in, or if the bears are geared to take us lower.
What is the Scenario
The blue lines represent two avenues for positive price action. The first shows if there is overwhelming buy pressure, we would shoot back above the support range and reclaim the trend.
The second option, and often most likely is a retest should we pivot where price is currently. What we are looking for in this situation is higher lows being maintained at the Key Retest zone. Simple as that.
Basically the opposite scenario of the bulls this week. Either a strong rejection resulting in a move down either in the immediate future or after a retest. Should we get a lower low at the Key Retest zone identified above, we would hold more of a bearish sentiment on the market.
DXY – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar index can be a good way to gauge sentiment on investment classes such as equities and crypto. The relationship is inverse. ie. If the USD Index is showing strength we see a sell-off in stocks and crypto.
The DXY is technically in an uptrend at the moment, and I would expect to see signs of weakness here before we could see strength in Bitcoin’s price.
What do I think?
I personally think it’s a period of uncertainty, where if you are a punter in the space it’s simply waiting to see either the BTC trend reclaim or be lost here to choose your next move.
From our last market update, I have personally taken profits from the positions I entered. The price of Bitcoin moved up exactly as I called it and offered a 6% gain on BTC which I took profit on 75% of my position earlier this morning before the market rolled over.
If we form a higher low at the key zone identified above, I will start building a position again. And then my next step will be to enter again once we reclaim the support trend. Set stop a stop loss just outside that zone to control risk.